Wildcard
AFC
Cincinnati Bengals over Houston Texans: Matt Schaub is not playing well right now at all. The Bengals are going to take advantage, and once again, the Texans will be a disappointment. TJ Yates could probably save the day though.
Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts: The Ravens look pretty good right now, and I fully expect Joe Flacco to play well enough in this game to get a win. Plus, Ray Rice is really good at football.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks over Washington Redskins: At first I was going to pick the Redskins to win this one, but the more I thought about it, the more I realized that RG3's limitations as he recovers from his knee sprain will be key. Plus, Russell Wilson is peaking right now, and the Seahawks get CB Brandon Browner back.
Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings: Aaron Rodgers won't lose to the Vikings two weeks in a row. Discount double check all day.
Division
AFC
Denver Broncos over Cincinnati Bengals: Cincinnati is playing alright, but not as well as the Broncos. Von Miller is a huge part of their defense, and he's playing well. And then Peyton Manning is playing at an MVP level again, so it shouldn't be too difficult for the Broncos.
New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens: The Patriots offense is the best in the NFL. They're not losing to a team with a banged up Terrell Suggs and Ray Lewis. Betting against Tom Brady in the playoffs is also foolish.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: The Falcons always lose their first playoff game. It's not changing this year.
San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers: I almost picked the Packers because a) they're good and b) I just wanted a rematch of the MNF game where MD Jennings picked off Russell Wilson, but Golden Tate "caught the touchdown." But I'm also just not sure about the Packers with guys returning from injuries and finding their place in the lineup again. They could easily prove me wrong, but the 49ers also look good to me.
Conference Championship
AFC
New England Patriots over Denver Broncos: Tom Brady...Peyton Manning...where have I seen this before? Manning is good, no doubt. The Broncos defense is good, no doubt. The Patriots defense can be shaky, sure. I don't care. Stevan Ridley is the best Patriots running back since like Laurence Maroney. Well, he was only slightly above average, so maybe Corey Dillon? Whatever, Ridley is good. Gronkowski is back, and he's the best tight end in the game, and a top five receiver. Don't bet against Tom Brady.
NFC
San Francisco 49ers over Seattle Seahawks: The Week 16 MNF matchup was disastrous for the 49ers, but it would be foolish to believe the Seahawks would repeat such a dominant performance. After all, the 49ers are actually good. Justin Smith should be back, and that is HUGE for their defense. It makes Aldon Smith better, and he is the 49ers' best pass rusher. Anyway, I think Colin Kaepernick is going to keep getting better, Frank Gore is playing some great football, and the O-Line is terrific for the 49ers generally.
Super Bowl
New England Patriots over San Francisco 49ers: Let me start with a story. During the MNF matchup between the Patriots and the 49ers, the Patriots were getting romped. Kaepernick looked terrific, and the Patriots offense couldn't really do much. As the Patriots started to slowly catch up, I tweeted that it was a comeback. I wanted the 49ers to win, so I basically jinxed the Patriots because we all know that calling it a comeback too early is a rookie mistake.
But anyway, I may be completely wrong on this. The Broncos might win, and the 49ers might lose to the Packers. But let's assume I'm right, which is generally true. Patriots are good. They are hungry for another SB win. I have a hard time believing the 49ers can switch quarterbacks midseason to a second year QB with limited experience and take down Tom Brady. Weirder things have happened. Watch out for the MNF revenge. Once again: do not bet against Tom Brady. That's a rookie mistake. That's like calling it a comeback.
Saturday, January 5, 2013
Friday, January 4, 2013
2013 NFL Playoff Predictions
Walker Minot
Wildcard
AFC
Cincinnati Bengals over Houston Texans: the Texans do not look good to me right now. They have a very good team and have had a great season, but succeeding in the NFL playoffs is about peaking at the right time. From watching the Texans the last two weeks it looks to me like they've peaked and are playing their worst ball at an unfortunate time of year. The Bengals have won three in-a-row (almost eight in-a-row if they hadn't lost by one to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14) and the Texans have limped into the playoffs, missing out on a bye they should have had. They will come out flat and the Bengals will take advantage.
Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts: Ravens have not been playing well of late, however, they are a better and more experienced team than the Colts. Ray Lewis's last game in Baltimore will give him and the Ravens defense enough motivation to stop a very talented but inexperienced Andrew Luck.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks over Washington Redskins: it's hard not to like Redskins rookie Robert Griffin III, but easier not to like his team against the Seahawks in this game. The Redskins struggled to beat a mediocre Cowboy team last weekend at home; RGIII can't run well and Alfred Morris won't be able to save them against a Seattle team that has a stingy defense (unlike the Cowboys) and is riding high.
Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson is so ridiculously good at running the football that I was tempted to pick the Vikings here. But I didn't. The Packers aren't a great team, but their defense will be able to contain Peterson enough so the Aaron Rodgers-led offense will win it.
Division
AFC
Denver Broncos over Cincinnati Bengals: the Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL right now (winners of 11 straight) with a great quarterback, good running back, and solid defense. An extra week of preparation for an all-time great like Peyton Manning is unfair, not to mention the Broncos have home-field advantage in a tough place to play.
New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens: the Patriots are a much better team. Well-coached, great quarterback, excellent receivers, good rush defense (granted their pass defense is horrendous), plus they get the Ravens in Foxborough for this one. Baltimore will be playing hard for Ray Lewis's career to end with a win, but the Ravens just aren't good enough.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: battle of the birds. For some reason I've never liked the Falcons this year. I've felt they were overrated despite their terrific record and number one overall seed in the NFC. I can't think of any reason why I would be biased against them (Iowa City native and City High/University of Iowa alumnus Tim Dwight ran a kickoff back for a TD for them last time they were in the Super Bowl so I should like them), but I just can't get on their bandwagon. And Seattle has been playing really well.
San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers: the 49ers have a terrific team. Great defense, excellent coach, and really good running game. The Packers are good but they won't be able to score more points than San Fran, and when that happens, you lose.
Conference Championship
AFC
Broncos over Patriots: I'm really excited for this match-up Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been bitter rivals for years and I'm delighted to see it continuing with Peyton in Denver. The Patriots will lose to the Broncos for the same reason they have lost in the playoffs for the last five years: poor defense. (As alluded to earlier, their pass defense is ranked 29th in the league in yards allowed. Who doesn't think Peyton won't carve that up?) The Broncos are good to terrific in all facets of the game, and while Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are amazing, their not-being-amazing-enough-to-win-the-Super Bowl-with-a-defense-that's-as-leaky-as-a-sieve streak will continue.
NFC
Seahawks over 49ers: a game of great defenses usually comes down to field goal kicking (think of the first game between LSU and Alabama last year). Are 49er fans confident that they can win that battle with Billy Cundiff and David Akers trying to kick it through the uprights? I don't think so (again, recall the first Bama-LSU game last year in which Bama was the superior team but lost because of bad kicking). Plus, Colin Kaepernick will throw multiple interceptions at very bad times, dooming San Francisco (that probably won't happen I just want to see some sort of vindication for Alex Smith, who was unceremoniously benched after stoically leading the 49ers through seven-and-a-half mostly awful years).
Super Bowl
Broncos over Seahawks: this will not be a close game. The Broncos are an excellent, well-rounded team that's playing their best football at the best time. Peyton Manning is pissed that Eli has one more ring than he does because, let's face it, Eli is an excellent QB, but he's no Peyton.
Bottom Line
I'm not as confident as I was last year, but I'm happy to take my chances with these picks. What I'm most worried about is the Seahawks. Any time you pick a rookie QB to lead a team to the Super Bowl it's debatable. I could see them losing any of their playoff games, and if RGIII were fully healthy I would have picked the Redskins in the first round game. Maybe he will be, maybe he won't, either way, it will be fun to find out. I look forward to the bragging and the shaming that will commence.
Wildcard
AFC
Cincinnati Bengals over Houston Texans: the Texans do not look good to me right now. They have a very good team and have had a great season, but succeeding in the NFL playoffs is about peaking at the right time. From watching the Texans the last two weeks it looks to me like they've peaked and are playing their worst ball at an unfortunate time of year. The Bengals have won three in-a-row (almost eight in-a-row if they hadn't lost by one to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14) and the Texans have limped into the playoffs, missing out on a bye they should have had. They will come out flat and the Bengals will take advantage.
Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts: Ravens have not been playing well of late, however, they are a better and more experienced team than the Colts. Ray Lewis's last game in Baltimore will give him and the Ravens defense enough motivation to stop a very talented but inexperienced Andrew Luck.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks over Washington Redskins: it's hard not to like Redskins rookie Robert Griffin III, but easier not to like his team against the Seahawks in this game. The Redskins struggled to beat a mediocre Cowboy team last weekend at home; RGIII can't run well and Alfred Morris won't be able to save them against a Seattle team that has a stingy defense (unlike the Cowboys) and is riding high.
Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson is so ridiculously good at running the football that I was tempted to pick the Vikings here. But I didn't. The Packers aren't a great team, but their defense will be able to contain Peterson enough so the Aaron Rodgers-led offense will win it.
Division
AFC
Denver Broncos over Cincinnati Bengals: the Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL right now (winners of 11 straight) with a great quarterback, good running back, and solid defense. An extra week of preparation for an all-time great like Peyton Manning is unfair, not to mention the Broncos have home-field advantage in a tough place to play.
New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens: the Patriots are a much better team. Well-coached, great quarterback, excellent receivers, good rush defense (granted their pass defense is horrendous), plus they get the Ravens in Foxborough for this one. Baltimore will be playing hard for Ray Lewis's career to end with a win, but the Ravens just aren't good enough.
NFC
Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: battle of the birds. For some reason I've never liked the Falcons this year. I've felt they were overrated despite their terrific record and number one overall seed in the NFC. I can't think of any reason why I would be biased against them (Iowa City native and City High/University of Iowa alumnus Tim Dwight ran a kickoff back for a TD for them last time they were in the Super Bowl so I should like them), but I just can't get on their bandwagon. And Seattle has been playing really well.
San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers: the 49ers have a terrific team. Great defense, excellent coach, and really good running game. The Packers are good but they won't be able to score more points than San Fran, and when that happens, you lose.
Conference Championship
AFC
Broncos over Patriots: I'm really excited for this match-up Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been bitter rivals for years and I'm delighted to see it continuing with Peyton in Denver. The Patriots will lose to the Broncos for the same reason they have lost in the playoffs for the last five years: poor defense. (As alluded to earlier, their pass defense is ranked 29th in the league in yards allowed. Who doesn't think Peyton won't carve that up?) The Broncos are good to terrific in all facets of the game, and while Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are amazing, their not-being-amazing-enough-to-win-the-Super Bowl-with-a-defense-that's-as-leaky-as-a-sieve streak will continue.
NFC
Seahawks over 49ers: a game of great defenses usually comes down to field goal kicking (think of the first game between LSU and Alabama last year). Are 49er fans confident that they can win that battle with Billy Cundiff and David Akers trying to kick it through the uprights? I don't think so (again, recall the first Bama-LSU game last year in which Bama was the superior team but lost because of bad kicking). Plus, Colin Kaepernick will throw multiple interceptions at very bad times, dooming San Francisco (that probably won't happen I just want to see some sort of vindication for Alex Smith, who was unceremoniously benched after stoically leading the 49ers through seven-and-a-half mostly awful years).
Super Bowl
Broncos over Seahawks: this will not be a close game. The Broncos are an excellent, well-rounded team that's playing their best football at the best time. Peyton Manning is pissed that Eli has one more ring than he does because, let's face it, Eli is an excellent QB, but he's no Peyton.
Bottom Line
I'm not as confident as I was last year, but I'm happy to take my chances with these picks. What I'm most worried about is the Seahawks. Any time you pick a rookie QB to lead a team to the Super Bowl it's debatable. I could see them losing any of their playoff games, and if RGIII were fully healthy I would have picked the Redskins in the first round game. Maybe he will be, maybe he won't, either way, it will be fun to find out. I look forward to the bragging and the shaming that will commence.
Thursday, January 3, 2013
Playoff Predictions 2013
Max Miceli
Wildcard Weekend
AFC
Colts over Ravens- Indy finished the season strong with a win over the Texans, and no one knows the Ravens better than former Raven Defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano and Steeler Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians. I expect Chuck and BA's game planning to be the difference in this game.
Texans over Bengals- I'm not sleeping on the Bengals, but I feel like the Texans will pull it together this weekend after two straight tough losses against playoffs teams. In the end, I see the Texans talent being too much for Cincinnati, but don't be surprised if you see that kid AJ Green do a little something like what TY Hilton did to Houston last weekend.
NFC
Seahawks over Washington- Seattle won't have it's unstoppable 12th man this weekend, but I don't see them needed it. RGIII is still a little slow from his leg injury a few weeks ago, and if any defense can contain Washington's spread option run game, it's Pete Carroll's Seahawk defense filled with hard hitting players at every (and I mean EVERY) position.
Packers over Vikings- Last week was great for the Vikings, but they aren't playing in Minnesota this time around. Christian Ponder will make or break the game for the Vikings, and I see it being hard for him to do well on the road in a hostile cold environment at Lambeau Field.
Divisional Weekend
AFC
Broncos over Colts- What a match up? am I right? Peyton against his old team and the young gun Andrew Luck. It'll shape up to be a great game, but Luck's performance on the road as been mediocre all season, and Denver has one of the most well balanced team in the NFL. Expect Von Miller to give Luck fits and Peyton to torch Indy's secondary.
Patriots over Texans- hasn't this happened before?... like, this season? It has happened, and the Pats made the Texans look stupid. I don't expect a repeat of the demolition job the Patriots did last time, but I don't see the Texans pulling this one out in Foxboro.
NFC
49ers over Packers- The 49ers have home-field advantage and the better defense. If Justin Smith is healthy for this game look for Rodgers to be under constant pressure from the likes of Justin's brother from another mother Aldon Smith.
Seahawks over Falcons- I want to pick the Falcons in this one, but Defense wins championships and Seattle has a run game that can take the area out of the Georgia Dome. The matchup that determines this game though is the Seattle secondary against Atlanta's WRs. I'll take the Adderall popping boys from Seattle. Julio and Roddy may get one or two big plays, but I think the likes of Sherman and Browner win this war.
Conference Championship Weekend
AFC
Broncos over Patriots- Denver will be at home, they have a better defense, and Peyton is very familiar with this Pats defense. It'll be close, as it always is when Peyton plays the Pats, but the Denver D will be the big difference.
NFC
49ers over Seahawks- This is a toss up. Seattle will be HOT by this point, but San Fran is at home. The 49ers don't want a repeat of last year, and Harbaugh definitely doesn't want Carroll to give him a beat down like he did in Seattle. In the end, the 12th man can't help the Seahawks in San Francisco, and the presence of the most underrated player in the league (as voted by players according to Sports Illustrated), Justin Smith, makes the difference.
Super Bowl
Broncos over 49ers- You know how I said Defense wins championships last year? You know... When I picked the Ravens and the 49ers to play in the Super Bowl? Yeah, that's how it works unless you have arguably the greatest QB of all time. Peyton will get his much deserved second ring, but it wont be easy. The 49er D will make him work for it, and Kaepernick's mobility will be a challenge for Von Miller's pass rush. I think Kaepernick's inexperience and Peyton's knowledge and experience are the key factors that give Denver the edge over the Niners.
Wildcard Weekend
AFC
Colts over Ravens- Indy finished the season strong with a win over the Texans, and no one knows the Ravens better than former Raven Defensive coordinator Chuck Pagano and Steeler Offensive Coordinator Bruce Arians. I expect Chuck and BA's game planning to be the difference in this game.
Texans over Bengals- I'm not sleeping on the Bengals, but I feel like the Texans will pull it together this weekend after two straight tough losses against playoffs teams. In the end, I see the Texans talent being too much for Cincinnati, but don't be surprised if you see that kid AJ Green do a little something like what TY Hilton did to Houston last weekend.
NFC
Seahawks over Washington- Seattle won't have it's unstoppable 12th man this weekend, but I don't see them needed it. RGIII is still a little slow from his leg injury a few weeks ago, and if any defense can contain Washington's spread option run game, it's Pete Carroll's Seahawk defense filled with hard hitting players at every (and I mean EVERY) position.
Packers over Vikings- Last week was great for the Vikings, but they aren't playing in Minnesota this time around. Christian Ponder will make or break the game for the Vikings, and I see it being hard for him to do well on the road in a hostile cold environment at Lambeau Field.
Divisional Weekend
AFC
Broncos over Colts- What a match up? am I right? Peyton against his old team and the young gun Andrew Luck. It'll shape up to be a great game, but Luck's performance on the road as been mediocre all season, and Denver has one of the most well balanced team in the NFL. Expect Von Miller to give Luck fits and Peyton to torch Indy's secondary.
Patriots over Texans- hasn't this happened before?... like, this season? It has happened, and the Pats made the Texans look stupid. I don't expect a repeat of the demolition job the Patriots did last time, but I don't see the Texans pulling this one out in Foxboro.
NFC
49ers over Packers- The 49ers have home-field advantage and the better defense. If Justin Smith is healthy for this game look for Rodgers to be under constant pressure from the likes of Justin's brother from another mother Aldon Smith.
Seahawks over Falcons- I want to pick the Falcons in this one, but Defense wins championships and Seattle has a run game that can take the area out of the Georgia Dome. The matchup that determines this game though is the Seattle secondary against Atlanta's WRs. I'll take the Adderall popping boys from Seattle. Julio and Roddy may get one or two big plays, but I think the likes of Sherman and Browner win this war.
Conference Championship Weekend
AFC
Broncos over Patriots- Denver will be at home, they have a better defense, and Peyton is very familiar with this Pats defense. It'll be close, as it always is when Peyton plays the Pats, but the Denver D will be the big difference.
NFC
49ers over Seahawks- This is a toss up. Seattle will be HOT by this point, but San Fran is at home. The 49ers don't want a repeat of last year, and Harbaugh definitely doesn't want Carroll to give him a beat down like he did in Seattle. In the end, the 12th man can't help the Seahawks in San Francisco, and the presence of the most underrated player in the league (as voted by players according to Sports Illustrated), Justin Smith, makes the difference.
Super Bowl
Broncos over 49ers- You know how I said Defense wins championships last year? You know... When I picked the Ravens and the 49ers to play in the Super Bowl? Yeah, that's how it works unless you have arguably the greatest QB of all time. Peyton will get his much deserved second ring, but it wont be easy. The 49er D will make him work for it, and Kaepernick's mobility will be a challenge for Von Miller's pass rush. I think Kaepernick's inexperience and Peyton's knowledge and experience are the key factors that give Denver the edge over the Niners.
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