2013 NFL Playoff Predictions

Walker Minot

Wildcard 

AFC

Cincinnati Bengals over Houston Texans: the Texans do not look good to me right now. They have a very good team and have had a great season, but succeeding in the NFL playoffs is about peaking at the right time. From watching the Texans the last two weeks it looks to me like they've peaked and are playing their worst ball at an unfortunate time of year. The Bengals have won three in-a-row (almost eight in-a-row if they hadn't lost by one to the Dallas Cowboys in Week 14) and the Texans have limped into the playoffs, missing out on a bye they should have had. They will come out flat and the Bengals will take advantage.

Baltimore Ravens over Indianapolis Colts: Ravens have not been playing well of late, however, they are a better and more experienced team than the Colts. Ray Lewis's last game in Baltimore will give him and the Ravens defense enough motivation to stop a very talented but inexperienced Andrew Luck.

NFC

Seattle Seahawks over Washington Redskins: it's hard not to like Redskins rookie Robert Griffin III, but easier not to like his team against the Seahawks in this game. The Redskins struggled to beat a mediocre Cowboy team last weekend at home; RGIII can't run well and Alfred Morris won't be able to save them against a Seattle team that has a stingy defense (unlike the Cowboys) and is riding high.

Green Bay Packers over Minnesota Vikings: Adrian Peterson is so ridiculously good at running the football that I was tempted to pick the Vikings here. But I didn't. The Packers aren't a great team, but their defense will be able to contain Peterson enough so the Aaron Rodgers-led offense will win it.

Division

AFC

Denver Broncos over Cincinnati Bengals: the Broncos are the hottest team in the NFL right now (winners of 11 straight) with a great quarterback, good running back, and solid defense. An extra week of preparation for an all-time great like Peyton Manning is unfair, not to mention the Broncos have home-field advantage in a tough place to play.

New England Patriots over Baltimore Ravens: the Patriots are a much better team. Well-coached, great quarterback, excellent receivers, good rush defense (granted their pass defense is horrendous), plus they get the Ravens in Foxborough for this one. Baltimore will be playing hard for Ray Lewis's career to end with a win, but the Ravens just aren't good enough.

NFC

Seattle Seahawks over Atlanta Falcons: battle of the birds. For some reason I've never liked the Falcons this year. I've felt they were overrated despite their terrific record and number one overall seed in the NFC. I can't think of any reason why I would be biased against them (Iowa City native and City High/University of Iowa alumnus Tim Dwight ran a kickoff back for a TD for them last time they were in the Super Bowl so I should like them), but I just can't get on their bandwagon. And Seattle has been playing really well.

San Francisco 49ers over Green Bay Packers: the 49ers have a terrific team. Great defense, excellent coach, and really good running game. The Packers are good but they won't be able to score more points than San Fran, and when that happens, you lose.

Conference Championship 

AFC

Broncos over Patriots: I'm really excited for this match-up  Tom Brady and Peyton Manning have been bitter rivals for years and I'm delighted to see it continuing with Peyton in Denver. The Patriots will lose to the Broncos for the same reason they have lost in the playoffs for the last five years: poor defense. (As alluded to earlier, their pass defense is ranked 29th in the league in yards allowed. Who doesn't think Peyton won't carve that up?) The Broncos are good to terrific in all facets of the game, and while Tom Brady and Bill Belichick are amazing, their not-being-amazing-enough-to-win-the-Super Bowl-with-a-defense-that's-as-leaky-as-a-sieve streak will continue.

NFC

Seahawks over 49ers: a game of great defenses usually comes down to field goal kicking (think of the first game between LSU and Alabama last year). Are 49er fans confident that they can win that battle with Billy Cundiff and David Akers trying to kick it through the uprights? I don't think so (again, recall the first Bama-LSU game last year in which Bama was the superior team but lost because of bad kicking). Plus, Colin Kaepernick will throw multiple interceptions at very bad times, dooming San Francisco (that probably won't happen I just want to see some sort of vindication for Alex Smith, who was unceremoniously benched after stoically leading the 49ers through seven-and-a-half mostly awful years).

Super Bowl

Broncos over Seahawks: this will not be a close game. The Broncos are an excellent, well-rounded team that's playing their best football at the best time. Peyton Manning is pissed that Eli has one more ring than he does because, let's face it, Eli is an excellent QB, but he's no Peyton.

Bottom Line 

I'm not as confident as I was last year, but I'm happy to take my chances with these picks. What I'm most worried about is the Seahawks. Any time you pick a rookie QB to lead a team to the Super Bowl it's debatable. I could see them losing any of their playoff games, and if RGIII were fully healthy I would have picked the Redskins in the first round game. Maybe he will be, maybe he won't, either way, it will be fun to find out. I look forward to the bragging and the shaming that will commence.

Who Was Right?

Walker Minot

The thing about blogging is that any mistake you make can and probably will be preserved forever in cyberspace. Luckily, anytime you are awesomely right about something, it is likewise maintained. Such is the case with my Super Bowl pick.

At the start of the playoffs I had a clear idea of who was going to make the Super Bowl from the NFC. The Giants had just soundly beaten the Cowboys and I recognized the Giants team from 2008 that went on an amazing run that culminated with them beating the best team I have ever seen (2008 Tom Brady-Randy Moss Patriots, led by Darth Vader himself). After watching that game I was confident that the Giants would be there. All the other teams in the NFC, though great, had flaws. The Saints and the Packers had no defense, and the 49ers had Alex Smith at quarterback and inexperience to deal with. The Giants are very balanced, Eli Manning is an experienced QB having a career year, their defensive line is healthy and formidable, their running backs are solid, and their receivers are fantastic. No other NFC team had that kind of balance.

The Patriots I was less sure of. I picked them for two reasons. The first was that I was less unsure about them than any other team in the AFC, and the second was that I really wanted to see a rematch of the awesome 2008 Super Bowl that featured The Catch.

My pick for the game remains the same as it was at the beginning of all this. The Giants are more balanced and peaking at the right time. The Patriots are very good, but their defense, particularly their secondary, will have to step up in a big way if they have any hope of toppling New York (their defense has been playing much better but I watched last weekend and wasn't too convinced in its excellence). I think Tom Brady is going to be Tom Brady, Belichick will be Belichick, but the Giants are more than one man and his Sith Master.

P.S. I really hate both of these teams, but there's some consolation in being right:)

P.P.S. I've been knocking on wood the whole time while writing this so as not to jinx my prediction for the game by being a smarmy little loser.