Who Was Right?

Walker Minot

The thing about blogging is that any mistake you make can and probably will be preserved forever in cyberspace. Luckily, anytime you are awesomely right about something, it is likewise maintained. Such is the case with my Super Bowl pick.

At the start of the playoffs I had a clear idea of who was going to make the Super Bowl from the NFC. The Giants had just soundly beaten the Cowboys and I recognized the Giants team from 2008 that went on an amazing run that culminated with them beating the best team I have ever seen (2008 Tom Brady-Randy Moss Patriots, led by Darth Vader himself). After watching that game I was confident that the Giants would be there. All the other teams in the NFC, though great, had flaws. The Saints and the Packers had no defense, and the 49ers had Alex Smith at quarterback and inexperience to deal with. The Giants are very balanced, Eli Manning is an experienced QB having a career year, their defensive line is healthy and formidable, their running backs are solid, and their receivers are fantastic. No other NFC team had that kind of balance.

The Patriots I was less sure of. I picked them for two reasons. The first was that I was less unsure about them than any other team in the AFC, and the second was that I really wanted to see a rematch of the awesome 2008 Super Bowl that featured The Catch.

My pick for the game remains the same as it was at the beginning of all this. The Giants are more balanced and peaking at the right time. The Patriots are very good, but their defense, particularly their secondary, will have to step up in a big way if they have any hope of toppling New York (their defense has been playing much better but I watched last weekend and wasn't too convinced in its excellence). I think Tom Brady is going to be Tom Brady, Belichick will be Belichick, but the Giants are more than one man and his Sith Master.

P.S. I really hate both of these teams, but there's some consolation in being right:)

P.P.S. I've been knocking on wood the whole time while writing this so as not to jinx my prediction for the game by being a smarmy little loser.

Giants at 49ers Preview

Walker Minot

A fun Sunday is on the way. Two playoff games to decide who plays Super Bowl XLVI (personally I'm most looking forward to Super Bowl L, or even Super Bowl C).

The NFC Championship game features two teams few expected to see. The New York Giants went 9-7 during the year, but they have gotten hot at the right time, brushing aside the Atlanta Falcons and taking down the 15-1 Green Bay Packers last week. The San Francisco 49ers went 6-10 last year, but under new coach Jim Harbaugh rode a dominating defense, great running by Frank Gore, and solid QBing by Alex Smith to a 13-3 record and victory over the New Orleans Saints.

I picked the Giants to win the Super Bowl this year upon the start of the playoffs, a pick of which I am increasingly proud. I saw them play against the Cowboys in the final week of the season and was immediately reminded of the 2008 Giants team that got hot at the right time and shocked everybody by beating the New England Patriots for the championship. I picked them this year because I saw the same look in their eyes and believed them to be the most balanced team in the NFL. All other great teams this year had glaring weaknesses. The Patriots, Saints, and Packers all had very bad defenses (although the Pats D has really stepped it up), the 49ers had Alex Smith as their quarterback, the Ravens had Joe Flacco as their quarterback. I picked the Giants because they had a fantastic defensive line: Justin Tuck, Osi Umenyiora, and Jason Pierre-Paul. At QB they have the experienced Eli Manning, who is having a career year. At running back they have Brandon Jacobs and Ahmad Bradshaw, who are solid with over 1,000 yards this year between them. Jacobs is excellent at punishing tired defenses at the end of games. And at receiver they have record breaker Victor Cruz (fantastic!) and UNC alum Hakeem Nicks. There are no weaknesses on the team. Balance wins championships.

The 49ers I did not pick to be here. I underestimated them. Alex Smith came through in the clutch last week in a big way and here they are. I am holding to the Giants in this game, but I do see a path to victory for the 49ers. Their defense is fantastic. They could easily shut down the Giants running game, but the key will be stopping the pass as well, no team has done that to the Giants in awhile. If the 49ers can stop both the run and the pass, then Alex Smith will have to go to work. Frank Gore will have a reliably good game, but they need Smith to step up, and they need the offensive line to hold off the ferocious pass rush of the Giants, who will be gunning for Smith, trying to make him uncomfortable from the get go.

I'm predicting a close, but solid victory for the Giants. The Giants will not turn it over 200 times in this game like the Saints did last week. I do however see a path to victory for the 49ers if their defense holds them, forces turnovers, and Alex Smith gets it done. But I'm betting on the more experienced and balanced Giants to make it to the Super Bowl for the second time in five years.

Giants: 24

49ers: 14

Cowboys at Giants Recap

Walker Minot

So, the Giants, led by Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin, come through again, and the Cowboys stumble anew. Two statements can describe why the Giants won: one, no matter how good your second half defense is, if you give up 21 points to an excellent team in the first half you're probably going to lose, and two, Victor Cruz is a star.

Those two things, plus a slow start by injured Dallas quarterback Tony Romo, propelled the Giants to the victory and an NFC East championship. As I worried about in the preview, the Giants came out lit up and the Cowboys came out flat. Their defense had no answer to the Giants offense, and, despite finishing with a very good stat line, Romo had a tough time initially (understandable, as he had not taken a snap in a week). Giant coach Tom Coughlin had his team 100 percent ready to win, and Cowboy coach Jason Garrett did not match up. In the first quarter Cowboy cornerback Terrence Newman missed a key tackle that should have ended the drive, and later Victor Cruz had a 74 yard touchdown catch (again after a missed tackle by Newman). The second quarter also belonged to the Giants, with two more touchdowns put on the board and an intimidating 21 point lead going into the locker rooms at half.

The second half however was a different story. The Cowboy defense was ready to play, giving up no points in the third quarter. The offense put up a touchdown on good passing by Romo. Hope was kindled in Cowboy hearts. The defense was getting down to business and Romo was in a good rhythm, his hand appearing to be unbothered. The third quarter ended with the Cowboys down 21-7, but the momentum on their side.

The fourth quarter saw another Cowboy touchdown, putting real fear in Giants' fans. The Cowboys' five giveaway losses have been well documented this year, but less well documented was the fact that they won four games in which they trailed going into the fourth quarter. It appeared as though the Cowboys could be on their way to a fifth comeback win. Eli Manning and Victor Cruz however would have none of this. The Giants had made a field goal to stretch the lead to 10 points, the Cowboys were still very much in the game, but they needed another stop. On a 3rd down and seven play Manning scrambled, barely avoiding the sack, and managed to find a well covered Cruz, who made a spectacular catch against his body, 40 yards downfield for a huge first down. Later in the drive Manning connected with Cruz to give the Giants a first down and goal, before finishing it off with a four yard TD pass to UNC alum Hakeem Nicks.

This effectively ended the game. One spectacular play from a veteran QB to a young wide receiver almost cut by the Giants earlier this year.

This game provided a decent synopsis of the Cowboys' season, the initial hope, disappointment, more torturously lingering hope, but finally: anguishing defeat. They had so many chances to make the playoffs, but ultimately they couldn't come through. There was some important element missing, something the Giants had but the Cowboys lacked. Garrett, Romo and crew will spend another offseason searching for it.

For the Giants, the two best players of today's game were their two best players of the season. Eli Manning, who's had the best year of his career, and Victor Cruz, who set the Giant's single season record for receiving yards. They will be a force to be reckoned with in the playoffs and I wouldn't be surprised if they went far. The core group of their team has won a Super Bowl, and many elements (QB, RBs, wideouts, and defensive line) look very strong. Watch out for the Giants.

Dallas Cowboys at New York Giants

Walker Minot

Both the Cowboys and the Giants have had up-and-down seasons, the Cowboys have blown several games they should have won, and the Giants went through a four game losing streak. For both teams, it all hinges on this game. Winner take all (all being the last NFC playoff spot).

In the previous matchup between the two teams the Cowboys blew a big lead with only five minutes left in the fourth quarter. It was a stunning combination of a Cowboy defense collapse and excellent play by Giants quarterback Eli Manning.

Statistically the Cowboys are superior to the Giants in rushing yards, opponent rushing, and opponent passing yards, with the Giants being marginally better in passing yards. These statistics don't have much value however because they haven't translated into many more wins for the Cowboys. What will decide this game is the X factor; what doesn't show up on the stat sheet.

The Giants have been coached for along time by Tom Coughlin. He has a well earned reputation as a stick-in-the-mud, but has also won a Super Bowl and experienced great success. Coughlin's quarterback, Eli Manning, has proven himself multiple times in tight situations, won a Super Bowl, and is having an excellent year. The Cowboys are led by first full year coach Jason Garrett and Tony Romo who, while having a great year, is coming off of a hand injury. These two duos are not equal.

As a lifelong Cowboy fan (following in the footsteps of Dad) my heart says the Cowboys will win, but everything I know about them and everything I know about the Giants says the Giants will win. Coughlin and Manning have proven themselves over and over, this might be Romo and Garrett's time, but until they lead a team to a win in a game like this I'm going to go with the coach and quarterback who have. For the sake of my dad's health however, I hope I'm wrong.

Giants: 31

Cowboys: 27

P.S. It's going to be really close, but the Cowboys defense is going to blow it.